أشـرف عاشــــــور

Note: this article is referring to the prerevolutionary era in Egypt . It was actually written and sent to the prestigious “Project Syndicate” website. Apparently it was not qualified for posting in the online publication.   

Upon the return of Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei to Egypt in early 2010, he began a peaceful campaign aiming to amend the Egyptian constitution and its laws. Headed by the former Director General of the IAEA, the campaign concentrated on ending Emergency State Law, enabling the freedom to create new political parties, and facilitating nomination for Presidency in the country. ElBaradei is a joint recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize, along with the IAEA. His attempt at change in the Egyptian political system was an obvious tearing through red tape –tape that the Egyptian regime seemed determined to keep intact.

Despite outward optimism of many Egyptians during ElBaradei’s public efforts, the National Democratic Party (NDP), now in power for over three decades, has managed to suppress his campaign for change. Thanks to the NDP’s control over government media outlets, its experience with the Egyptian street, and hand-strong security agencies, the party has ensured that no threat to its authority was to come from ElBaradei.

As a result of this defeat, ElBaradei  and his supporters announced their boycott of the November 2010 People’s Assembly elections. They further urged other opposition parties and political groups to join their boycott, in an attempt to pressure the powers that be to level the political playing field and allow equal opportunity for all players.

However,  the majority of  the effective Egyptian opposition saw a chance at gain in the 2010 elections and decided to venture in.

The venture went sour for them, and for many other Egyptians who were struck with waning hope after the fiasco ended. The elections were seen by the majority of neutral observers to be among the worst Egypt has seen in terms of fairness and transparency, and in-famed as a blend of “farce and fraud”[1].

In an attempt at putting positive spin on an otherwise disturbing facade, a member of the NDP government has claimed that the total opposition seat percentage following the 2010 elections is close to that seen after the 2005 assembly elections. The remark is interesting, since the 2005 elections were by no means an example of true democratic process. It is as if the NDP is saying that though things have gotten no better, they are no worse. But such a decree can paint a distorted picture if not put into its proper context.

After the 2005 elections, the Group of Muslim Brotherhood (GMB), one labeled “banned” by the current regime, had managed to win 88 assembly seats. The number did not allow the GMB to vote effectively in that last assembly, which had a total of 454 seats. Despite this apparent weakness however, assembly presence of the group, considered prime opponent by the current regime, was effective in other ways. Members of the GMB would often stubbornly oppose government policy, and the resultant reputation echoed outside of the assembly. It is perhaps because of this, or the later apparent alliance of the GMB with ElBaradei, that the Group has been severely punished in the most recent elections. The 2010 elections ended with the dramatic decline of GMB seats to zero.

A second point of note is that all recognized opposition parties, headed by the liberal “Al Wafd” party, had no significant success in 2010. Al Wafd was expected to replace the GMB as opposition more favored by the NDP government. However, with very few exceptions, most opposition candidates, including Al Wafd’s, were dropped out of the first round of elections. Citing an unbearable amount of government intervention and ballot forgery as reasons, the serious opposition parties refused to enter the second round of elections, and has boycotted the newly formed assembly.

Moreover, the majority of effective independents have been dropped from the current assembly. The now disposed-of politicians were behind raising many issues of corruption and poor management, which forced the NDP government to engage it. This sometimes caused significant pressure, which reached important figures deeply connected with the regime, stirring the Egyptian streets and adding to public protest.

Eminent of these independents were luminary politicians who were able to gather notable public support. Some even announced their intention to run for the upcoming presidential elections, slated to take place before this year’s end. This was regarded by the current regime as an unforgivable sin.

This last group, not unified by any organized body, was most distressing to the NDP government in recent years, and it is apparent that remaining silent was no longer an option when dealing with them. The NDP had to uproot these individuals, and this was executed in a most outlandish manner in the 2010 elections.

It is clear that the Egyptian regime has adopted a new policy in recent months when dealing with opposition and freedoms. Enforcement of this policy has reached its peak vigor in the last elections. It seems that the NDP government felt constricted by all the protest and demands to raise wages and improve services within the assembly and outside of it. Perhaps NDP leaders saw that these goings-on were undesirable, and that a limit must be placed on them before the coming presidential elections.

Whomever the next NDP presidential nominee is, the current political equation guarantees him the Egyptian presidency. It may be Hosni Mubarak for a sixth term, the groomed son Jamal, or one of the other figures whose names emerge from time to time. Whoever it is, many believe that he must be willing to protect the interests of the ruling class and its surrounding benefactors. It was necessary, according to current regime valuations, that a safe and comfortable stage be set for his arrival, with the least amount of disturbance and noise.

Ashraf Ashour

Born in Cairo, Egypt, 1949.

BSC. In Civil Engineering 1972. Diploma of Archaeology and Islamic civilization in 1976.    

A writer and blogger. Writes in Arabic for:  http://www.ouregypt.us/a.ashoor/main.html, the monthly Egyptian magazine www.weghatnazar.com, And his blog www.ashrafashour.com

 

7 January, 2011

Note: this article is referring to the prerevolutionary era in Egypt . It was actually written and sent to the prestigious “Project Syndicate” website. Apparently it was not qualified for posting in the online publication.   

Upon the return of Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei to Egypt in early 2010, he began a peaceful campaign aiming to amend the Egyptian constitution and its laws. Headed by the former Director General of the IAEA, the campaign concentrated on ending Emergency State Law, enabling the freedom to create new political parties, and facilitating nomination for Presidency in the country. ElBaradei is a joint recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize, along with the IAEA. His attempt at change in the Egyptian political system was an obvious tearing through red tape –tape that the Egyptian regime seemed determined to keep intact.

Despite outward optimism of many Egyptians during ElBaradei’s public efforts, the National Democratic Party (NDP), now in power for over three decades, has managed to suppress his campaign for change. Thanks to the NDP’s control over government media outlets, its experience with the Egyptian street, and hand-strong security agencies, the party has ensured that no threat to its authority was to come from ElBaradei.

As a result of this defeat, ElBaradei  and his supporters announced their boycott of the November 2010 People’s Assembly elections. They further urged other opposition parties and political groups to join their boycott, in an attempt to pressure the powers that be to level the political playing field and allow equal opportunity for all players.

However,  the majority of  the effective Egyptian opposition saw a chance at gain in the 2010 elections and decided to venture in.

The venture went sour for them, and for many other Egyptians who were struck with waning hope after the fiasco ended. The elections were seen by the majority of neutral observers to be among the worst Egypt has seen in terms of fairness and transparency, and in-famed as a blend of “farce and fraud”[1].

In an attempt at putting positive spin on an otherwise disturbing facade, a member of the NDP government has claimed that the total opposition seat percentage following the 2010 elections is close to that seen after the 2005 assembly elections. The remark is interesting, since the 2005 elections were by no means an example of true democratic process. It is as if the NDP is saying that though things have gotten no better, they are no worse. But such a decree can paint a distorted picture if not put into its proper context.

After the 2005 elections, the Group of Muslim Brotherhood (GMB), one labeled “banned” by the current regime, had managed to win 88 assembly seats. The number did not allow the GMB to vote effectively in that last assembly, which had a total of 454 seats. Despite this apparent weakness however, assembly presence of the group, considered prime opponent by the current regime, was effective in other ways. Members of the GMB would often stubbornly oppose government policy, and the resultant reputation echoed outside of the assembly. It is perhaps because of this, or the later apparent alliance of the GMB with ElBaradei, that the Group has been severely punished in the most recent elections. The 2010 elections ended with the dramatic decline of GMB seats to zero.

A second point of note is that all recognized opposition parties, headed by the liberal “Al Wafd” party, had no significant success in 2010. Al Wafd was expected to replace the GMB as opposition more favored by the NDP government. However, with very few exceptions, most opposition candidates, including Al Wafd’s, were dropped out of the first round of elections. Citing an unbearable amount of government intervention and ballot forgery as reasons, the serious opposition parties refused to enter the second round of elections, and has boycotted the newly formed assembly.

Moreover, the majority of effective independents have been dropped from the current assembly. The now disposed-of politicians were behind raising many issues of corruption and poor management, which forced the NDP government to engage it. This sometimes caused significant pressure, which reached important figures deeply connected with the regime, stirring the Egyptian streets and adding to public protest.

Eminent of these independents were luminary politicians who were able to gather notable public support. Some even announced their intention to run for the upcoming presidential elections, slated to take place before this year’s end. This was regarded by the current regime as an unforgivable sin.

This last group, not unified by any organized body, was most distressing to the NDP government in recent years, and it is apparent that remaining silent was no longer an option when dealing with them. The NDP had to uproot these individuals, and this was executed in a most outlandish manner in the 2010 elections.

It is clear that the Egyptian regime has adopted a new policy in recent months when dealing with opposition and freedoms. Enforcement of this policy has reached its peak vigor in the last elections. It seems that the NDP government felt constricted by all the protest and demands to raise wages and improve services within the assembly and outside of it. Perhaps NDP leaders saw that these goings-on were undesirable, and that a limit must be placed on them before the coming presidential elections.

Whomever the next NDP presidential nominee is, the current political equation guarantees him the Egyptian presidency. It may be Hosni Mubarak for a sixth term, the groomed son Jamal, or one of the other figures whose names emerge from time to time. Whoever it is, many believe that he must be willing to protect the interests of the ruling class and its surrounding benefactors. It was necessary, according to current regime valuations, that a safe and comfortable stage be set for his arrival, with the least amount of disturbance and noise.

Ashraf Ashour

Born in Cairo, Egypt, 1949.

BSC. In Civil Engineering 1972. Diploma of Archaeology and Islamic civilization in 1976.    

A writer and blogger. Writes in Arabic for:  http://www.ouregypt.us/a.ashoor/main.html, the monthly Egyptian magazine www.weghatnazar.com, And his blog www.ashrafashour.com